My grandfather was a contemporary of Thomas Edison. He never met Edison, but while working as a chemist in New York City early in the twentieth century, he met some of Edison’s employees and they talked about technology. My grandfather used to tell me that all the tech I took for granted, from airplanes to telephones did not exist when he was a boy. As a youth in Eastern Europe he got around by horse. The automobile would not arrive until he was an adult living in the U.S. It wasn’t long before the automobile caught on and replaced the horse. Today people still ride horses, but as recreation rather than their primary means of transportation. Are internal combustion automobiles about to go the way of the horse as our main mode of transportation. Will internal combustion cars be toys in the future?
The Internal Combustion Automobile
An internal combustion automobile is very much a high-tech horse and buggy with the horse replaced with a mechanical propulsion device. The mechanical engine runs on a combustible petroleum fuel that replaces the biological horse power that propelled civilization for millennia. Easy availability made it the ideal fuel—cheap, portable, and relatively safe. When the automobile first came into widespread use, there was little concern for the environment, and there seemed little danger of ever running out of this plentiful resource. However, as the world’s population exploded and the demand for energy rose even faster, the drawbacks of relying on fossil fuels became apparent.
- Environmental changes to the atmosphere. There is little doubt that a century of fossil fuel consumption has returned captured carbon to the atmosphere in the form of carbon dioxide. The science is clear that the world’s atmosphere has seen an increase in the carbon dioxide content, and that it has contributed to changes in the world’s weather.
- Environmental damage by extracting fossil fuels. Mining fossil fuels is a messy business that causes damage to the land where it is extracted. It is difficult to extract petroleum without some degree of leakage. Further, some forms of oil extraction, such as fracking, can contaminate ground water and do other environmental damage.
- Fossil Fuels Are Nonsustainable. There is only so much fossil fuel in the world, and over time it has become more and more difficult to extract. Advances in technology has enable us to maintain production, but with a rapid increase in worldwide demand, it will not be long before we run out of fuel.
What Comes Next?
The global consumer demands a personal transportation device that is comfortable and stylish. The internal combustion automobile fits that requirement but will go the way of the horse during this century, and the transition is already underway. Its replacement will not be quite the revolutionary advance of the automobile. Rather it will be an evolution of the automobile from internal combustion to electric vehicle—the EV. Those vehicles have already arrived, offered by EV companies like Tesla and by major automobile manufacturers. As battery technology improves and charging stations proliferate, more and more of us will be driving EVs.
Will Internal Combustion Cars Be Toys in the Future?
When the automobile took over as our main mode of transportation, the horse did not disappear. Rather than being a main means of transportation, the riding of horses became more of a leisure activity. Owning, racing, riding, and showing horses is for many people a hobby that has fueled an entire industry that has grown up around the art and sport of equestrian.
It seems inevitable that the same fate awaits the internal combustion automobile. Some decades in the future, most of us will be driving EVs, but that does not mean every vintage car will become recycled steel. Just as millions of people enjoy horses today, millions will enjoy the internal combustion automobile in a variety of ways.
- Collecting automobiles. Collecting old cars is not new, as hobbyists like Geoff Hacker of Undiscovered Classics and Jay Leno collect vintage automobiles.
- Driving automobiles. In the future people will drive vintage internal combustion automobiles for recreation. For those without the funds to purchase or space to store an old car, garage businesses will sprout up where someone can rent a car for a few hours or few days to enjoy the feel of the road.
- Automobile Shows. Again, this is nothing new as today there are shows throughout the country where hobbyists display their automotive works of art. When everyone is driving an EV, internal combustion automobiles will seem even more exotic and historic.
- Watching the races. People will enjoy the sport of internal combustion racing just as they do today. NASCAR, with millions of fans, is not going anywhere. Who will want to watch an EV race without the exciting roar of the engines?
The use of fossil fuels versus renewables has become a political issue in the U.S. and some other places. In the short run the proponents of internal combustion cars might slow down the inevitable transition to EV vehicles, but they cannot stop it. Their greater efficiency, lesser environmental damage, and sustainability of renewable sources of energy is the future for main transportation. When that happens internal combustion cars will be toys to enjoy.
Photo by Jean van der Meulen from Pexels